Oil output fell 8.3% in nine months; Brent ended the week near $110
Published · 17 min read · 12 stories
The Energy Ministry summed up nine months: oil output fell 8.3% to 69.4 million tonnes, and the full-year forecast is 96 million tonnes; the same output and a $70 oil price underpin the 2027 draft budget approved in first reading. Nostrum closed the sale of its Kazakh assets to a company linked to Kenes Rakishev for $304.6 million, the government gave dates for new gas plants at Kashagan and Karachaganak, and at the Uralsk forum operators signed contracts worth about 320 billion tenge with Kazakh plants. Brent rose 4.9% on the week and closed on Friday at $109.86, the highest since 19 May.
The week in a minute
- 1Oil output in January–September was 69.4 million tonnes (−8.3%); the 2026 forecast is 96 million tonnes instead of 98 million.
- 2The 2027–2029 budget passed first reading: oil at $70 a barrel, output of 96 million tonnes, 480 ₸ to the dollar.
- 3Nostrum closed the sale of Zhaikmunai and Positiv Invest to Altaris Holding for $304.6 million.
- 4Kashagan gas plants are due in 2027 and 2030, Karachaganak's in 2031; ≈320 billion ₸ of contracts were signed in Uralsk.
- 5Brent +4.9% on the week to $109.86; the tenge firmed 0.4% to 452.12 per dollar.
The week on the map
The fields in this issue's stories; the number is the story.
- 1Tengiz, Kashagan, KarachaganakOil output fell 8.3% in nine months; the 2026 forecast is 96 million tonnes
- 2Prorva WestEmbamunaigas produced 2.24 Mt in nine months, 57,000 tonnes above plan
- 4ChinarevskoeNostrum closes the sale of its Kazakh assets for $304.6 million; Chinarevskoye passes to Altaris
- 5Kashagan, KarachaganakNew gas plant dates: Kashagan in 2027 and 2030, Karachaganak in 2031
The week in numbers
ICE Brent December futures, Friday's closing price as reported by Interfax, the highest since 19 May. Earlier issues gave an evening quote; this Friday the price rose after it ($106.15 at 20:40 Astana time).
TTF front-month (November) futures on ICE, evening of 16 October (22:05 Moscow time); on 13 October the price topped $1,000 for the first time since September. Kazakhstan has no single price: wholesale caps run from 7,563 to 55,716 ₸ per 1,000 m³ excl. VAT by region (Energy Ministry Order No. 210); no change was reported this week.
The National Bank's official rate for 17–19 October.
Production
Oil output fell 8.3% in nine months; the 2026 forecast is 96 million tonnes
At the government meeting on 13 October the Energy Ministry said Kazakhstan produced 69.4 million tonnes of oil in January–September, 91.7% of the same period of 2025, or 6.3 million tonnes less. All three of the largest fields are behind last year: Tengiz at 26.7 million tonnes (88%), Kashagan at 12.8 million (94%) and Karachaganak at 7.5 million (82%). To make up the volumes, planned maintenance at Kashagan and Tengiz was postponed; according to the ministry, the country's total output losses were cut from 5.9 to 1.9 million tonnes, and the full-year forecast is 96 million tonnes instead of 98 million. Gas output was 47.4 billion m³ (91.9% of last year, with a full-year forecast of 64.5 billion m³), while domestic consumption of commercial gas rose 3.4% to 14.9 billion m³.
Why it matters. Oil is the main source of export earnings and of receipts to the National Fund, so a lower forecast feeds straight into the budget: the 2027 draft also assumes 96 million tonnes. To meet the full-year forecast, output in the fourth quarter has to average almost 8.9 million tonnes a month against 7.7 million in January–September (editors' arithmetic), hence the postponed maintenance at the largest fields.
Maintenance at Kashagan and Tengiz is postponed; the ministry is in talks with large subsoil users on raising output.
Output at the three largest fields is below last year, and the full-year forecast is down by 2 million tonnes.
Postponed maintenance may push some service work at the largest fields to a later date.
Embamunaigas produced 2.24 Mt in nine months, 57,000 tonnes above plan
According to KazMunayGas, Embamunaigas produced 2.237 million tonnes of oil and condensate in January–September, 57,000 tonnes above plan. A digital twin of the Vostochny Moldabek field is to bring 12 million tonnes of hard-to-recover reserves into development, and by the end of 2028 KMG plans digital twins at its 12 largest fields, which provide more than 90% of the group's output. The 2026–2031 appraisal programme covers nine fields and is to add 15 million tonnes of recoverable reserves, while horizontal sidetracks drilled at five of ten planned wells added 130 tonnes of oil a day at less than half the cost of new horizontal wells. The gas project at West Prorva, whose first stage in 2025 handles up to 160 million m³ a year, is to reach 920 million m³ in 2027.
Why it matters. Embamunaigas's fields in Atyrau region are among the oldest in the country, and their output is held up by new technology: sidetracks, digital models and appraisal. It continues the series of reports from KMG subsidiaries covered in our previous issue.
Sidetracks cost less than half as much as new horizontal wells, a benchmark for other mature fields.
KMG data only, with no comparison with last year and no financial figures.
30 slant wells in 2026–2028, sidetracks, digital twins and the gas project mean demand for drilling and IT solutions.
Regulation
The 2027–2029 budget passes first reading: oil at $70, output of 96 million tonnes
On 14 October the Kurultai approved the draft national budget for 2027–2029 in first reading, with 128 deputies in favour and eight abstaining. The base forecast assumes an oil price of $70 a barrel, $10 more than in the 2026–2028 budget, output of 96 million tonnes and 480 tenge to the dollar. On these assumptions, oil-sector receipts to the National Fund in 2027 are put at 3,781.8 billion tenge, 342 billion less than the 2026 estimate. The government also looked at two other scenarios: at $85 a barrel the economy grows 5.9% a year on average, at $50 by 3.2%.
Why it matters. The budget price is the base for calculating oil-sector revenue, not a market forecast: Brent closed at $109.86 on Friday. The $50 to $85 scenarios are easy to rerun in the economic model to test projects at different prices.
Low and high are the government's pessimistic and optimistic scenarios for 2027–2029; Brent is the December futures close as reported by Interfax.
Tengrinews.kz, 14 OctoberThe budget assumes the same output for 2027 as the current 2026 forecast, 96 million tonnes.
This is the first reading, so the figures may still change; receipts to the National Fund in 2027 are expected 342 billion tenge below the 2026 estimate.
No direct effect on orders.
Deals
Nostrum closes the sale of its Kazakh assets for $304.6 million; Chinarevskoye passes to Altaris
On 15 October Britain's Nostrum Oil & Gas completed the sale of its Kazakh assets to Altaris Holding, registered in the Astana International Financial Centre and linked to businessman Kenes Rakishev. The buyer took stakes in Zhaikmunai, the subsoil user of the Chinarevskoye oil, gas and condensate field in West Kazakhstan region, and in Positiv Invest (the Kamenskoye and Kamensko-Teplovsko-Tokarevskoye blocks), plus rights under related loans. The price is $304.6 million and may be adjusted after final settlement; $10 million is held in escrow for at least six months. According to Nostrum, it has invested more than $2.5 billion in Kazakh projects since 1997.
Why it matters. The deal, first reported on 17 August, has closed, and a company that had worked in the country since 1997 is leaving Kazakhstan. Chinarevskoye and Zhaikmunai's gas processing plant (about 4.2 billion m³ of gas a year, according to Kursiv) pass to a new owner registered in the Astana International Financial Centre.
- Alturion Holding — 51
- Fincraft Energy Holding (Kenes Rakishev) — 49
The subsoil user Zhaikmunai keeps operating; its ultimate owner has changed.
The price may still be adjusted, and $10 million stays in escrow for at least six months.
The new owner's investment plans for Chinarevskoye have not been announced.
Gas
New gas plant dates: Kashagan in 2027 and 2030, Karachaganak in 2031
On 15 October, at the Prime Minister's meeting with the leadership of Qatar's Power International Holding, the Energy Ministry said construction and installation are under way at the first gas processing plant for Kashagan gas, with a capacity of 1 billion m³ a year; the main equipment is almost all delivered and start-up is planned for 2027, while the second plant, for 2.5 billion m³, is due to be completed in 2030. According to the environmental scoping conclusion retold by Kursiv on 16 October, the first plant, owned by GPC Investment (75% Qatar's UCC Holding, 25% QazaqGaz), will turn 1 billion m³ of associated gas into 727 million m³ of commercial gas, 115,500 tonnes of liquefied gas, 17,000 tonnes of condensate and 218,500 tonnes of sulphur a year, with operation from the fourth quarter of 2027. The same day Vice Minister of Energy Yerlan Akbarov said the Karachaganak gas plant, with a capacity of 5 billion m³ of raw gas a year, will start up in 2031 (early earthworks in 2027), and that the field's sixth gas reinjection compressor will move to commercial operation in November.
Why it matters. At Kashagan and Karachaganak a significant part of the gas produced is injected back into the reservoir to maintain pressure. The new plants are meant to supply commercial gas to the domestic market, where consumption is growing while gas output fell this year. The first Kashagan plant's deadline has already moved, from 2025 to mid-2026 and then to the end of 2026.
Karachaganak: raw gas capacity. Energy Ministry data of 15 October.
Минэнерго РК, 15 OctoberThe plant dates decide how much gas the fields can send for processing instead of reinjecting it.
The first Kashagan plant has been delayed several times; this week's reports give no project costs.
Three gas plants under way to 2031 mean demand for equipment, installation and site preparation.
Companies
Uralsk forum: contracts worth about 320 billion tenge with Kazakh manufacturers
At the oil and gas machine-building forum and open day of the large operators in Uralsk, oil and gas companies on 16 October signed contracts worth about 320 billion tenge with Kazakh manufacturers. According to the Energy Ministry, TCO, NCOC and KPO account for about 70% of the industry's procurement: in 2025 they bought goods, works and services worth 2.8 trillion tenge (+4%), of which in-country value was 56%, or 1.6 trillion. TCO signed contracts and memorandums worth more than $200 million with Kazakh companies, and in January–August 2026 72% of its purchases ($1.1 billion of $1.5 billion) went to domestic manufacturers and suppliers. Oil Services Company (KMG group) signed an offtake contract with KSP Steel for casing and tubing for 2027–2029; KMG has concluded 545 such contracts worth 105 billion tenge since 2019.
Why it matters. An offtake contract is a commitment to buy products a plant has yet to make; it gives the manufacturer guaranteed sales and a basis for investment. For Kazakh plants it is a direct route into the procurement of the largest operators, which hold most of the industry's orders.
In-country value in procurement stays a ministry priority; the forum contracts are part of that work.
Growing local procurement supports Kazakh manufacturers; it has no direct effect on the economics of the operators' projects.
TCO's new contracts and KMG's pipe offtake to 2029 mean guaranteed demand for Kazakh plants.
World
IEA: Kazakhstan produced 1.86 mb/d in September against an OPEC+ target of 1.63 mb/d
In its October report of 14 October the International Energy Agency (IEA) put Kazakhstan's crude output in September at 1.86 million barrels a day, 0.24 million above its implied OPEC+ target (1.63 million) and above the country's sustainable capacity (1.83 million). The IEA expects world oil demand to fall by 2.6 million barrels a day on average in 2026, and global stocks at the end of September were 509 million barrels below their level before supply was disrupted. On 13 October OPEC cut its 2026 demand growth forecast for the sixth month in a row, to 0.18 million barrels a day. On 12 October OPEC+ ministers meeting in Riyadh reaffirmed their June decisions but took no new production decision; the seven countries, Kazakhstan included, will discuss December levels on 1 November.
Why it matters. According to the IEA, Kazakhstan produced above its OPEC+ target in both August and September, by about 15% in September (editors' arithmetic); OPEC has not published the overproduction compensation plan since July. The agency says the country has no spare capacity, so meeting the full-year forecast depends above all on the largest fields running without stoppages.
Crude oil, excluding gas condensate.
IEA, 14 OctoberOutput is above the OPEC+ target; the seven countries meet next on 1 November.
The reports differ on demand: the IEA expects it to fall in 2026, OPEC expects slight growth.
No direct effect on orders.
Prices and markets
Brent +4.9% on the week: $109.86 on Friday, the highest since 19 May
From Monday to Thursday December Brent closed in a narrow range, between $105.69 and $106.65 a barrel. On Friday it rose $3.94 (+3.72%) to $109.86, the highest close since 19 May, amid new threats to shipping near the Strait of Hormuz: according to Kpler, the seven-day average of crude shipments from the Gulf countries fell to 8.5 million barrels a day from 20 million a week earlier. US crude (WTI) was supported by an 8.557 million barrel fall in US commercial stocks. On 15 October IEA countries agreed to speed up the release of the remaining 100 million or so barrels of emergency stocks, including over 20 million barrels of diesel; about 330 million barrels have already been released.
Why it matters. A high price supports export earnings and receipts to the National Fund, which the 2027 draft budget calculates at $70. But Friday's rise reflects supply risks rather than demand, which the IEA expects to fall, so the price can turn just as sharply: on Monday morning Brent was at $107.91.
ICE Brent December futures closing prices, as reported by Interfax.
Интерфакс, 19 OctoberA price above $105 all week keeps revenue per barrel high.
The jump reflects supply risks; worth testing projects at different prices in the economic model.
The price does not change this week's orders.
The tenge firmed 0.4% on the week to 452.12 per dollar
Over the week the official rate swung by almost 6 tenge: 453.93 for 12 October, 451.31 for the 13th, 448.45 for the 14th, 450.62 for the 15th and 454.14 for the 16th. After Friday's trading the rate for 17–19 October was set at 452.12, 1.81 tenge lower than a week earlier. On 23 October the National Bank announces its decision on the base rate, now 16.25%.
Why it matters. Despite dearer oil, the rate barely changed over the week, although it moved noticeably within it. A slightly firmer tenge trims exporters' revenue in tenge a little and makes imported equipment a little cheaper.
National Bank rate for the date; one rate for 17–19 October.
Kapital.kz, 17 OctoberThe rate barely changed over the week.
The base rate decision on 23 October sets the benchmark for tenge borrowing costs.
Imports got slightly cheaper in tenge.
Transport and exports
KazTransOil in nine months: 34.4 Mt of oil, deliveries into CPC +42%, the BTC route +24%
On 12 October KazTransOil said its trunk pipelines carried 34.4 million tonnes of oil in January–September, 4% more than a year earlier. The company delivered 3.57 million tonnes into the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system (+42%), 8.5 million tonnes went to China via Atasu–Alashankou (+3%), 2.6 million tonnes were loaded onto tankers at Aktau port (+7%), and transshipment on the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) route rose 24% to 1.16 million tonnes; Kazakh refineries received 13.8 million tonnes. On 15 October President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke of plans, together with Azerbaijan, to raise Kazakh oil supplies via BTC, and on 16 October presidential adviser Magzum Mirzagaliyev said the route now carries 1.6 million tonnes a year and the aim is 2.2 million; according to him, 80% of Kazakh oil goes through CPC.
Why it matters. CPC remains the main export route, so growth via China, Aktau and BTC reduces dependence on a single pipeline. The BTC plans are statements, not new agreements: no dates were given for the increase, and the volumes are still in the hundreds of thousands of tonnes against tens of millions through CPC.
Alternative routes are growing, giving more options to move oil if CPC is disrupted.
Most volumes still go through CPC; the BTC plans have no dates yet.
No direct effect on orders.
Refining
Refineries made 11.9 Mt of products in nine months; KMG sets out a 174 billion tenge environmental programme at the Atyrau refinery
In January–September Kazakh refineries produced 11.9 million tonnes of oil products (+2.4%): 4.6 million tonnes of gasoline (+3.9%), 4.8 million of diesel (+3.3%), 0.7 million of jet fuel (+21.8%) and 0.8 million of fuel oil (−31.8%); 15.5 million tonnes are planned for the year, the same as in 2025. On 15 October KMG chairman Askhat Khassenov visited the Atyrau refinery: in nine months the plant processed 4.17 million tonnes of feedstock with a refining depth of 91.1%, and a programme of 18 environmental measures is put at about 174 billion tenge and is meant to cut the permitted emission limit in stages from 20,100 tonnes in 2020 to 12,600 tonnes by 2030. According to Reuters sources cited by Inbusiness, AI-92 gasoline stocks at oil depots rose to 310,900 tonnes by 16 October from 300,000 a week earlier, and the Pavlodar and Atyrau refineries did not use their third-quarter permission to export gasoline to Russia. On 16 October the law ratifying the protocol with Russia that keeps oil product imports duty-free was published (savings of about 30 billion tenge in 2026).
Why it matters. The domestic fuel market is well supplied: gasoline and diesel output is rising and gasoline stocks are growing. The Atyrau programme was presented a week after the Ecology Ministry's unscheduled inspection reported in our previous issue; the plant's environmental permit for 2026–2029 goes to a public hearing on 6 November.
Refinery output is rising; the Atyrau refinery faces a hearing on its environmental permit on 6 November.
The 174 billion tenge is KMG's indicative estimate; funding sources were not named.
New burners, flare gas recovery and floating roofs on 71 of 75 tanks by the end of the year mean orders for equipment and installation.
Projects
KMG: Chevron, Shell, Sinopec and CNOOC want to join an exploration consortium of about $500 million
In an interview with LS published on 13 October, KMG First Deputy Chairman Kurmangazy Iskaziyev said Chevron, Shell, Sinopec and CNOOC have expressed interest in joining an international exploration consortium; investment within it is about $500 million, and drilling costs will come on top. The consortium is planned to be set up by the end of the year. Work will start with high-resolution 2D seismic over 60,000 line kilometres, and the search will target depths of 5.5 to 10 km, whereas the deepest drilling today, Tengiz and Kashagan included, is about 5.5 km. Separately, KMG is negotiating 23 projects with ministries.
Why it matters. Large new discoveries are the main way to offset the natural decline of mature fields. Searching at depths of up to 10 km goes well beyond today's drilling, and the participation of large international companies shares the risk of costly exploration. Nothing is signed yet, and no blocks or stakes have been named.
Seismic over 60,000 line km and ultra-deep wells make a programme lasting years.
This is one KMG executive's statement in an interview; no agreement has been signed.
High-resolution seismic and ultra-deep drilling are potentially large orders for service companies.
What's next
- The US licence allowing talks on the sale of LUKOIL's foreign assets (which include stakes in Karachaganak, Tengiz and CPC) expires; according to Interfax, the restrictions have not affected services linked to these projects.Интерфакс
- The National Bank announces its base rate decision (now 16.25%) at 12:00 Astana time.Национальный банк РК
- KazMunayGas publishes its nine-month operating results (26–30 October, according to its investor calendar).КазМунайГаз
- ExxonMobil, a TCO shareholder and Kashagan partner, publishes its third-quarter results.ExxonMobil
- Meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries, Kazakhstan included: December output levels.OPEC
- Public hearing in Atyrau on the Atyrau refinery's environmental permit for 2026–2029, 15:00, also on Zoom.Минэкологии РК, реестр общественных слушаний
- The IEA's monthly Oil Market Report, November edition.IEA
- Last day for bids in the 56-block oil and gas auction (held on 25 December). Every block, fee and date — subsoil auction; the rules — hydrocarbon auction.Kapital.kz
- SPE Caspian Technical Conference and Exhibition at the Atyrau University of Oil and Gas, 24–26 November.Kapital.kz
in-country value
In-country value is the Kazakh share of the goods, works, services and staff a subsoil user relies on, measured by uniform methods. This week the Energy Ministry said that at the three largest operators, TCO, NCOC and KPO, it reached 56% of 2025 procurement, or 1.6 trillion tenge. The higher it is, the more orders stay with Kazakh plants and service companies.
To the glossaryThe digest reviews the week's reports; the facts and figures belong to the sources cited. It is not investment or legal advice.