KMG targets 4.5 billion m³ of gas by 2030; European gas tops $1,200
Published · 11 min read · 11 stories
KazMunayGas set out how it will nearly double marketable gas output by 2030, to 4.5 billion m³ a year, from Rozhkovskoye, Zapadnaya Prorva and Urikhtau, and the first equipment arrived for the new Zhanaozen gas plant. The Energy Ministry proposed extending the ban on LPG exports for another six months and put the Kuryltay exploration block up for auction. OPEC+ kept Kazakhstan at 1.628 million barrels a day for December, Brent rose to nearly $118 before the December contract expired, and European gas topped $1,200 for the first time since 2022.
The week in a minute
- 1KMG: marketable gas from 2.4 to 4.5 billion m³ a year by 2030; three projects to add 2.1 billion m³.
- 2The ban on LPG exports by road and rail is proposed to be extended for six months from 14 November.
- 3Kursiv Research: TCO produced 39.0 Mt in 2025, 39% of the country's oil; 99.6 Mt in all.
- 4OPEC+ for December: Kazakhstan unchanged at 1.628 million barrels a day.
- 5Brent $117.6 (+0.8% on the week); TTF $1,192 per 1,000 m³; the tenge at 453.87 per dollar.
The week on the map
The fields in this issue's stories; the number is the story.
The week in numbers
ICE Brent December futures, which expired at Friday's close: the Interfax quote at 18:22 Moscow time on 30 October; our sources had not published the final close by press time. The January contract, now the front month, then traded at $113.66. Mon–Thu: closing prices.
TTF front-month futures on ICE, the quote at 22:01 Moscow time on 30 October; from that day the front month is December instead of November, so the weekly change is approximate. The series is the Monday–Thursday settlements reported by PRIME plus the Friday quote. Kazakhstan has no single price: the Energy Ministry sets wholesale caps on commercial gas by region; no change was reported this week.
The National Bank's official rate for 31 October–2 November.
Gas
KMG aims to nearly double its marketable gas output by 2030, to 4.5 billion m³ a year
On 29 October KazMunayGas reported that Aset Magauov, deputy chairman of its management board, told the ENERGY TRENDS: Gas & Petrochemicals conference in Astana that the company plans to raise marketable gas output from 2.4 to 4.5 billion m³ a year by 2030, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from 1.3 to 1.5 million tonnes. The main projects are the second stage of Rozhkovskoye in West Kazakhstan region, Zapadnaya Prorva in Atyrau region and the development of Central Urikhtau in Aktobe region. Once fully running, they should add about 2.1 billion m³ of marketable gas and 250 thousand tonnes of LPG a year. The gas is to be processed at existing plants near the fields.
Why it matters. The three projects should add almost as much marketable gas as KMG produces today, making the company a much bigger gas supplier to the domestic market. These are company targets, not results: no cost or timing was given for each project.
“3 projects” is the addition from Rozhkovskoye, Zapadnaya Prorva and Urikhtau once fully running.
КазМунайГаз, 29 OctoberThe gas is to be processed at existing nearby plants, which means more throughput for them.
The 2030 target is stated, but without budgets or schedules per project.
Developing three fields means demand for drilling, equipment and construction.
The first batch of equipment arrives for the new Zhanaozen gas plant
On 30 October KMG said the first batch of equipment from China for the new gas processing plant in Zhanaozen, Mangystau region, had been delivered by sea to Yersai port: furnaces, heat exchangers, vessels and electric heaters. Three more ships are on the way. Of 240 long-lead equipment items, 138 are ready, and manufacturing is 61.6% complete overall. The plant is being built from modules; it will process 900 million m³ of natural and associated gas a year into marketable gas, LPG and a pentane–hexane fraction.
Why it matters. The new plant is meant to supply gas to households and businesses in Mangystau region and to process associated gas from local fields. The release gives no start-up date or cost.
- Ready — 138
- In progress — 102
For producers in the region, future capacity to process associated gas.
Deliveries have begun, but the start-up date and cost are not disclosed.
The main equipment is being made in China; local firms can look to logistics, installation and services.
Projects
The polyethylene plant in Atyrau region is more than 41% built
In the same release on 29 October KMG gave the progress of its gas chemical projects in Atyrau region: the polyethylene plant is more than 41% complete, the gas separation complex 32% and the trunk pipelines for ethane and propane about 9%. In September an ethylene fractionation column more than 100 metres tall was installed at the plant site; it was made by the Kazakh company AtyrauNefteMash.
Why it matters. The three facilities form one chain: the complex separates ethane from Tengiz gas, the pipeline carries it to the plant, and the plant makes polyethylene. Construction of the pipelines began on 22 October, and KMG plans to bring them into service by the end of 2028.
For the polyethylene plant “more than 41%”, for the pipelines “about 9%”.
КазМунайГаз, 29 OctoberThe ethane line will start at the gas separation complex at Tengiz, another build next to the field.
Progress is given, but not the plant's start-up date or budget.
The column was made locally, an example of an order for Kazakh engineering firms.
Production
Kursiv Research: Tengizchevroil produced 39% of Kazakhstan's oil in 2025
On 28 October Kursiv Research published its ranking of the country's largest oil companies by 2025 output. First is Tengizchevroil (Tengiz): 39.0 million tonnes, 40.3% more than in 2024 and 39.2% of national output. Second is NCOC (Kashagan): 18.3 million tonnes (+4.8%), third KPO (Karachaganak): 12.1 million tonnes (−0.5%), and fourth Mangistaumunaigaz: 6.2 million tonnes. The country produced 99.6 million tonnes in all, with capacity of about 110 million; the analysts expect output to peak in 2028.
Why it matters. The ranking shows how much national output rests on the three big projects: together they produced almost 70 million of the 99.6 million tonnes. The other companies in the top ten work mature fields where output is flat or falling over the long term.
TCO is Tengizchevroil, MMG Mangistaumunaigaz. Kursiv Research ranking; the KPO figure is the outlet's estimate from KMG data.
Kursiv Media, 28 OctoberFor mature fields the main task is holding output steady.
The analysts expect a peak in 2028 and decline after 2030; this is the outlet's forecast.
Demand for services to sustain output at mature fields remains.
Regulation
The Energy Ministry proposes extending the ban on LPG exports for another six months
On 28 October it was reported that a draft order of the energy minister had been posted on the Open Legal Acts portal: from 14 November 2026, for six months, to ban exports of liquefied petroleum gas, propane and butane from Kazakhstan by road and rail, with exceptions. It continues the ban in force since 14 May 2026, whose exceptions include exports by subsoil users of gas produced under their contracts. Comments on the draft are open until 12 November.
Why it matters. The ministry says the ban is meant to keep the domestic market supplied with LPG. For producers it means that, outside the listed exceptions, surplus cannot be sold abroad by road or rail for another six months.
- 1
A six-month ban takes effect
- 2
Draft extension reported
- 3
Last day of comments on the draft
- 4
New six-month ban, if the order is signed
Subsoil users exporting gas under their own contracts are among the exceptions in the current ban.
For processors without an exception, LPG export revenue stays shut off for another six months.
No direct effect on orders.
The Energy Ministry puts the Kuryltay exploration block in Ulytau region up for auction
On 29 October Kursiv Media, citing an Energy Ministry notice, reported an auction for hydrocarbon exploration on the Kuryltay block in Ulytau region: 1,177.34 km², 500 blocks. The starting signature bonus is 21.625 million tenge, bids are accepted until 12 November and the auction is on 23 December on e-qazyna.kz. The winner must shoot 2D seismic over at least 30% of the block (about $1.2 million) and drill at least one exploration well within three years; local content must be at least 70% in works and services and 30% in goods.
Why it matters. It is an exploration block with a minimal work programme: seismic and one well. If large reserves are found, more than 100 million tonnes of oil or 50 billion m³ of gas, the subsoil user will have to take on one of the investment obligations of the Subsoil Code, such as building processing capacity.
A small entry ticket for exploration: the work programme is 2D seismic and one well.
The starting bonus is small, but the block has no proven reserves: it is exploration.
The 70% local content rule for works and services means orders for seismic and drilling firms.
Deals
KMG and Spain's Exolum agree to develop jet fuel infrastructure
On 28 October in Astana KMG, its subsidiary KazMunayGas-Aero and Exolum Aviation signed a three-way agreement on the main terms of strategic cooperation. The parties are considering building fuelling complexes and jet fuel storage at airports and upgrading existing facilities for Jet A-1 standard fuel. Exolum is a Madrid-based infrastructure group with about 6,000 km of pipelines and 68 terminals; its aviation arm serves 50 airports in Europe and Latin America.
Why it matters. This is a framework agreement: specific projects, investment and the split of obligations will be set after an economic study. For refining it is a step towards storing and dispensing jet fuel at airports under international quality rules.
It concerns fuel marketing, not production.
No investment amount has been named yet.
Future orders to build and upgrade airport fuel facilities.
World
OPEC+ keeps December output levels; Kazakhstan's stays at 1.628 million barrels a day
On 1 November the seven OPEC+ countries — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — agreed at an online meeting to keep for December the output levels set for September 2026. According to Interfax, citing the OPEC press release, Kazakhstan's level is 1.628 million barrels a day. The next meeting is on 29 November, the day of the full OPEC+ meeting. According to Forbes Kazakhstan, citing Cbonds, the CPC Blend export grade averaged $112.94 a barrel in September.
Why it matters. An unchanged level means Kazakhstan gets no new room to raise output in December, with prices above $110. The OPEC statement does not mention a compensation schedule for past overproduction.
The December level does not change.
Volumes are capped, but the export price is high.
No direct effect on orders.
Prices and markets
Brent climbs to nearly $118 on fears of Middle East supply disruption
December Brent futures closed between $113.88 and $115.81 from Monday to Thursday, and on Friday, their last trading day, rose more than 2%: to $118 during the day, for the first time since 30 April, and $117.6 at 18:22 Moscow time. The market was reacting to a fire on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz off Oman and fears of escalation in the Middle East. The January contract, now the front month, traded at $113.66 at the same time. Brent rose more than 13% in October. Stocks are a restraint: on 30 October the US Energy Department said it had completed its share (172 million barrels) of the 400 million barrel release from IEA members' reserves, and according to Bloomberg, France's economy minister said Europe would release 42 million barrels over three months.
Why it matters. A high oil price lifts export revenue and tax receipts, but the market has turned nervous. The gap between the December ($117.6) and January ($113.66) contracts shows the market paying a premium for prompt barrels. How the price affects a project is in the economic model.
Friday: the 18:22 Moscow time quote, the contract's last trading day.
Интерфакс, 30 OctoberThe high price supports export revenue.
The price rests on supply risks and can turn quickly.
No direct effect on orders this week.
European gas tops $1,200 per 1,000 m³ for the first time since December 2022
The TTF front-month futures on ICE rose sharply over the week, with ups and downs from day to day: on Monday the price topped $1,100 per 1,000 m³ for the first time since 21 December 2022, and on Friday $1,200, for the first time since 20 December 2022; the day's high was $1,204 and at 22:01 Moscow time it stood at $1,192 (+5.6% on the day). The previous Friday's settlement was $1,087.3. From 30 October the December contract replaced November as the front month.
Why it matters. Expensive gas in Europe raises the value of exported gas and LPG from the region, but in Kazakhstan gas is sold at Energy Ministry price caps, and no change to them was reported this week.
Domestic gas prices are regulated and do not follow the exchange.
High European prices are background, not revenue for Kazakh companies.
No direct effect on orders.
The tenge weakened 0.6% on the week, to 453.87 per dollar
The National Bank's official rate for 24–27 October was 451.05 tenge per dollar. The tenge then weakened, to 455.63 for 28 October and 457.09 for 29 October, and recovered part of the loss by the end of the week: 453.71 for 30 October and 453.87 for 31 October–2 November. Over the week the dollar gained 2.82 tenge. The base rate stays at 15.75%.
Why it matters. The rate matters twice over for oil companies: revenue is in dollars, while most costs and taxes are in tenge. A slightly weaker tenge with expensive oil adds a little to revenue in tenge.
Imported equipment costs slightly more in tenge.
The rate moved within 1.4% over the week.
Tenge contracts with imported content cost a little more to deliver.
What's next
- Last day for bids on the Kuryltay block (auction on 23 December).Kursiv Media
- Last day of public comments on the draft LPG export ban extension.Zakon.kz
- A new six-month ban on LPG exports may take effect from this date if the order is signed.Zakon.kz
- Last day for bids in the 56-block oil and gas auction (held on 25 December). Every block and date — subsoil auction; the rules — hydrocarbon auction.Kursiv Media
- SPE Caspian Technical Conference and Exhibition at the Atyrau University of Oil and Gas, 24–26 November.Kapital.kz
- Meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries, Kazakhstan included, on the day of the full OPEC+ meeting.Интерфакс
- The National Bank announces its next base rate decision (now 15.75%).Национальный банк РК
signature bonus
A signature bonus is a one-off payment to the state for the right to use the subsoil; in a hydrocarbon auction the highest bonus wins. For the Kuryltay block in Ulytau region the starting bonus is 21.625 million tenge; the auction on 23 December will set the final amount.
To the glossaryThe digest reviews the week's reports; the facts and figures belong to the sources cited. It is not investment or legal advice.