Karachaganak drags September output down, a fourth refinery by 2033
Published · 8 min read · 8 stories
According to Reuters, Karachaganak maintenance cut September oil output by about 7% to 7.65 Mt. At the KIOGE exhibition the Energy Ministry set a timeline for a fourth refinery and a target of 39 Mt of refining a year, while CPC confirmed that exports are running below last year. OPEC+ left November levels unchanged, Brent held near $100, and the tenge weakened to 447.73 per dollar on Friday.
The week in a minute
- 1September oil and condensate output 7.65 Mt (1.92 million b/d, about −7%); Karachaganak 42,000 b/d instead of 241,000.
- 2A fourth 10 Mt refinery by 2033, with the site chosen by year-end; refining capacity to rise from 18 to 39 Mt a year.
- 3OPEC+ kept November levels: Kazakhstan 1.628 million b/d; next meeting on 1 November.
- 4Brent from $107.8 to $100.8 with the roll to the December contract; the tenge weakened to 447.73 per dollar on Friday.
The week on the map
The fields in this issue's stories; the number is the story.
The week in numbers
ICE Brent December futures, Friday quote at 20:23 Astana time. From 1 October the front month is December, so a direct comparison with last week is not like-for-like.
TTF front-month futures, 14:30 Moscow time on 2 October. Kazakhstan has no single price: wholesale caps run from 7,563 to 55,716 ₸ per 1,000 m³ excl. VAT by region (Energy Ministry Order No. 210); no change was reported this week.
The National Bank's official rate for 3–5 October.
Production
Karachaganak maintenance cut September oil output to 7.65 Mt
According to Reuters, citing a source familiar with operational data, Kazakhstan produced 7.65 Mt of oil and gas condensate in September — 1.92 million barrels a day against 2.06 million in August, a fall of about 7% in daily output. At Karachaganak, under scheduled maintenance since 7 September, output dropped to 42,000 b/d from 241,000; Tengiz, by contrast, rose to 951,500 b/d from 882,000, and Kashagan gave about 390,500. January–September output was 69.4 Mt against 75.7 Mt a year earlier (−8.3%). Government agencies did not comment to Reuters.
Why it matters. The maintenance was scheduled to end on 1 October, so output should partly recover in October. Even so, the year is running well below last year — the government is working to 96 Mt for 2026.
Reuters data citing a source; not officially published.
Inbusiness.kz, 2 OctoberA planned dip with a known end date; higher Tengiz output partly offset it.
Fewer barrels in the third quarter for the KPO partners, KazMunayGas's share included.
The Karachaganak turnaround is over; the next burst of orders comes with the next scheduled shutdown.
Refining
A fourth refinery by 2033: oil refining capacity to rise to 39 Mt
At the KIOGE exhibition in Almaty, Daulet Arykbayev, director of the Energy Ministry's oil transport and refining department, said a new refinery of up to 10 Mt a year is planned by 2033. The Ulytau, Atyrau, Mangystau and Turkestan regions are being considered, with the site to be chosen by the end of 2026. Existing plants will expand: Shymkent from 6 to 12 Mt by 2030, Pavlodar from 5.5 to 9 Mt by 2031 and Atyrau from 5.5 to 6.7 Mt by 2028. In total, refining capacity is to grow from 18 to 39 Mt a year.
Why it matters. Refining at home means more crude staying on the domestic market and more fuel of the country's own. For producers the question is at what price and in what volume they will have to supply crude to the new capacity.
Total: 18 Mt now, 39 Mt planned.
Kapital.kz, 1 OctoberNew domestic supply obligations are possible; the terms have not been announced.
A large capital spending programme; the financing model and the site choice by year-end are what matter.
Four construction projects through 2033 mean demand for design, equipment and construction.
Atyrau refinery prepares a 174 billion tenge environmental programme
To obtain a comprehensive environmental permit, the Atyrau refinery has prepared a programme of 18 measures costing 174 billion tenge through 2030. Air emissions are to fall from 20,100 tonnes in 2020 (about 14,000 now) to 12,600 tonnes by 2030, wastewater sent to evaporation ponds from 8.687 to 4.9 million m³, and water intake from the Zhaiyk river is to be capped at 7.9 million m³ a year. Public hearings take place in Atyrau on 9 October.
Why it matters. A comprehensive environmental permit is mandatory for the largest industrial sites under the Environmental Code, and it cannot be obtained without an approved programme.
A benchmark for the scale of environmental spending at a large site.
Extra capital spending to 2030 within the KazMunayGas group.
174 billion tenge over five years means orders for treatment, water and gas-cleaning equipment.
World
OPEC+ keeps November output unchanged: Kazakhstan's level is 1.628 million b/d
On 4 October Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman decided to keep September's required production level for November and reaffirmed their commitment to full conformity. According to Interfax, Kazakhstan's level for November is 1.628 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia's 10.478 million and Russia's 9.949 million. The seven next meet on 1 November.
Why it matters. The OPEC+ level is the external benchmark for Kazakhstan's output. No change for November means operators need not revise their year-end plans.
The November production benchmark is unchanged.
Predictable OPEC+ policy in a nervous market.
No effect on orders.
Prices and markets
Brent this week: from $107.8 to $100.8 — China, G7 stocks and a contract roll
On Monday evening November Brent rose 3.4% to $107.82 on concern that the Middle East conflict would not be settled soon. It eased to $104.65 on Tuesday and stood at $103.71 on Wednesday. From 1 October the December contract became the front month — it traded almost $6 below November. On Thursday December Brent rose 3.7% to $101.70 after Reuters reported that Chinese companies had suspended oil-product exports to every destination except Hong Kong and Macau. On Friday the price dipped to $98.4 and stood at $100.78 by the evening (−1.5%) after the G7 agreed to release up to 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic stocks over four months.
Why it matters. Oil remains around $100, supporting export earnings. A direct comparison with last Friday ($103.89) is not possible: that was the November contract, this is the cheaper December one. The market still reacts sharply to news about supply from the Middle East and China.
Evening quotes, Astana time. 28–30 September: ICE Brent November futures; 1–2 October: December.
Kapital.kz, 3 OctoberA price near $100 keeps revenue per barrel high.
Volatility is high; worth testing projects at different prices in the economic model.
The price does not change this week's orders.
The tenge weakens to 447.73 per dollar after Friday's trading
For most of the week the official rate stayed near 440 tenge per dollar: 441.77 for 29 September, 439.37 for 30 September, 441.91 for 2 October. After Friday's trading on KASE the rate for 3–5 October was set at 447.73, 5.82 tenge higher than a day earlier. Over the week the tenge weakened by 1.3%.
Why it matters. A weaker tenge means more tenge for every dollar of oil sold and more tax income in tenge, but dearer imported equipment.
National Bank rate for the date.
Kapital.kz, 3 OctoberExport revenue in tenge went up.
For a dollar-based investor tenge assets got cheaper, while exporters' tenge margins rose.
Imported equipment and materials got dearer in tenge.
Deals
Bloomberg: Kazakhstan wants $10 billion and 35% of TCO to extend Tengiz
Bloomberg, citing unnamed sources, reported that Kazakhstan is ready to extend the Tengiz contract, which runs to 2033, in exchange for a one-off $10 billion payment and a rise in KazMunayGas's stake in Tengizchevroil from 20% to 35%. The talks are at an early stage, according to the agency. TCO is now owned 50% by Chevron, 25% by ExxonMobil, 20% by KazMunayGas and 5% by LUKOIL. There has been no official comment on the terms.
Why it matters. Tengiz is the country's largest field and the main source of output growth. The extension terms will set the income of the state and the foreign partners for decades.
- Chevron — 50
- ExxonMobil — 25
- KazMunayGas — 20
- LUKOIL — 5
So far this is a media report; TCO's operations are unaffected.
For the foreign shareholders a possible dilution and a large payment, for KazMunayGas a larger stake; the terms are unconfirmed.
An extension beyond 2033 would mean a long order horizon at Tengiz.
Transport and exports
CPC: almost 50 Mt loaded this year, 4 Mt less than a year earlier
From 1 January to 25 September almost 50 Mt of oil was loaded through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) marine terminal, 4 Mt less than in the same period of 2025; 397 tankers were handled against 453. CPC cites the after-effects of a 2025 incident at a single point mooring, lower deliveries from TCO in the first quarter, longer danger alerts near Novorossiysk and more bad-weather days. At KIOGE the consortium's deputy general director Kairgeldy Kabyldin said 2026 throughput is expected around the 2025 level (70.5 Mt, about 64 Mt of it Kazakh oil), perhaps slightly lower; all three moorings are working.
Why it matters. Most of Kazakhstan's oil exports leave through CPC. Fewer loadings mean less export revenue, even at a high price.
Export capacity this year is below last year's; weather and danger alerts remain risks.
Fewer barrels shipped for exporters using CPC.
No direct effect on orders.
What's next
- The US Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (EIA STEO), October edition.EIA
- Public hearings on the Atyrau refinery's environmental programme, Atyrau, 10:00.Inbusiness.kz
- The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly Oil Market Report.IEA
- The National Bank announces its base rate decision.Национальный банк РК
- The next meeting of the seven OPEC+ countries, Kazakhstan included: December output levels.OPEC
- Last day for bids in the 56-block oil and gas auction (held on 25 December). Every block, fee and date — subsoil auction; the rules — hydrocarbon auction.Kapital.kz
capital expenditure
Spending to build or expand assets that serve for years: a new refinery, an extension of an existing plant, treatment facilities. The week gave two examples — the fourth refinery and the Atyrau refinery's 174 billion tenge programme. How capital spending moves a project's value — in the economic model.
To the glossaryThe digest reviews the week's reports; the facts and figures belong to the sources cited. It is not investment or legal advice.