Oil output down, fuel excise up, Brent holds above $100
Published · 10 min read · 12 stories
The week confirmed that Kazakhstan's oil output is running below last year: down 8.3% in eight months, with the government budgeting 96 Mt for both 2026 and 2027. For the fuel market the main news is a sharp rise in the variable excise on gasoline and diesel. World prices stay above $100 a barrel, and the tenge firmed by about 1% over the week.
The week in a minute
- 1Oil output for January–August — 61.7 Mt (−8.3%); the forecast for 2026 and 2027 is 96 Mt each.
- 2The variable excise coefficient on gasoline and diesel is 95% instead of 50%, from 22 September and backdated to 1 September.
- 3Karachaganak is under maintenance until 1 October (400–450 kt less); gas purchases from Gazprom in 2026 will be 11 bcm.
- 4Brent moved between $103.5 and $108.4 and closed near $104.6; the tenge firmed to 446.56 per dollar.
The week on the map
The fields in this issue's stories; the number is the story.
The week in numbers
ICE Brent futures, Friday close.
Front-month futures, morning of 17 September. Kazakhstan has no single price: wholesale caps run from 7,563 to 55,716 ₸ per 1,000 m³ excl. VAT by region (Energy Ministry Order No. 210).
The National Bank's official rate.
Production
Oil output down 8% in eight months; 96 Mt forecast for 2026 and 2027
On 16 September the Bureau of National Statistics published January–August results: the crude oil production index stood at 91.6% of last year's level, natural gas at 94.6%. The next day, presenting the draft 2027–2029 budget, the vice minister of national economy said 61.7 Mt of oil and condensate had been produced in eight months (−8.3%); about 96 Mt is expected for 2026 instead of the 100.5 Mt budgeted earlier, 96 Mt again in 2027, then growth to 99–100 Mt, partly from the Tengiz expansion. The 2027 budget assumes oil at $70 a barrel and 480 tenge to the dollar.
Why it matters. Output drives export earnings and tax revenue. The same forecast for two years running means the government does not expect a quick recovery and plans the budget accordingly.
Then growth to 99–100 Mt, according to the Ministry of National Economy.
Kapital.kz, 17 SeptemberThe official 96 Mt benchmark for 2026–2027 is the base for planning capacity, logistics and offtake.
Fewer barrels mean less revenue for producers and less tax for the budget; the $70 budget price is conservative.
Flat output until 2027 means steady rather than growing demand for oilfield services; growth is expected with the Tengiz expansion.
Karachaganak under planned maintenance until 1 October: 400–450 kt less
Planned maintenance at Karachaganak began on 7 September and, on the Ministry of Energy's schedule, will last until 1 October. Oil and gas condensate output will fall by about 400–450 thousand tonnes over the period. The field is developed by the Karachaganak Petroleum Operating consortium.
Why it matters. Karachaganak is one of the country's three largest fields, so a month-long stop shows in September output and exports. The work is planned and time-limited.
- Shell — 29.25
- Eni — 29.25
- Chevron — 18
- Lukoil — 13.5
- KazMunayGas — 10
A planned stop with a known end date and volume loss — it can be built into plans.
A temporary volume loss for the consortium partners, KazMunayGas's share included, will show in third-quarter figures.
The turnaround brings work for maintenance and inspection contractors, but production-linked services dip for a month.
Regulation
Fuel excise: the variable-part coefficient rises from 50% to 95%
Government Resolution No. 816 of 11 September raised the coefficient for the variable part of excise on gasoline and diesel — the part charged when the wholesale price exceeds a threshold (214,584 tenge a tonne for gasoline, 284,350 tenge a tonne for diesel). The coefficient went from 50% to 95%. The resolution takes effect on 22 September and applies to relations arising from 1 September. The PetroMining association puts the extra burden on fuel suppliers at 400–550 billion tenge a year.
Why it matters. When the wholesale price is above the threshold, almost all of the difference now goes to excise: that directly cuts the revenue refiners and wholesalers earn on every tonne above it.
Coefficient 50%: half of the wholesale price excess over the threshold goes to excise.
Coefficient 95%: almost all of the excess goes to excise.
Refineries and wholesalers pay much more above the threshold — pressure on margins.
A higher and less predictable excise is a regulatory risk for refining and fuel distribution assets.
Fuel suppliers and traders carry most of the burden; the industry puts it at 400–550 billion tenge a year.
A subsoil user in Atyrau region paid 1.43 bn tenge in environmental fines
The Atyrau region ecology department found violations at Potential Oil LLP (the Begaidar area, Isatay district): in environmental monitoring, waste-water monitoring and reporting, emissions without permits and above limits, and waste handling. It drew up 37 reports and issued 7 rulings; the company paid 1.43 bn tenge in fines.
Why it matters. Regional ecology departments are actively inspecting subsoil users. The environmental monitoring programme, monitoring and waste records are a mandatory part of the environmental permit.
The cost of mistakes in environmental reporting, monitoring and waste handling is rising — worth checking your own procedures.
Environmental risks weigh especially on small upstream assets.
Demand for environmental monitoring, laboratories and waste management is growing.
Prices and markets
Brent this week: from $108.4 down to $103.5, almost unchanged by Friday
Prices rose early in the week as the market weighed the shutdown of Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline after an attack on 11 September; on Tuesday evening Brent reached $108.42, a near four-month high. From Wednesday prices fell: Saudi Aramco said it would restore half of the pipeline's capacity within days, US product stocks rose unexpectedly and the Fed raised rates. Brent dipped to $103.5 on Thursday and closed on Friday at $104.61 — 0.2% below a week earlier.
Why it matters. Oil above $100 — nearly half as much again as the $70 in the budget — supports export earnings. Demand for non-Gulf crude helped the Kazakh grade too: the National Bank says CPC Blend sells at a $2–4 premium to Dated Brent, though it usually trades at a discount.
11 and 18 September are closes; 14–17 September are evening quotes, Astana time. ICE Brent front-month futures.
Kapital.kz, 19 SeptemberThe high price and the CPC Blend premium lift the revenue on every barrel sold.
Support for producers' cash flow, but the market is nervous: the price swung by about $5 in a week.
High prices support operators' investment over time but do not change this week's orders.
A strong tenge and expensive oil: what it means for the budget
The official rate firmed over the week from 450.91 to 446.56 tenge per dollar. According to the National Bank, the tenge gained 3.1% in September and about 12% since January, helped by oil above $100, the CPC Blend premium and high prices for metals, grain and coal. The vice minister of national economy estimated that a rate 90 tenge stronger than the 540 per dollar in the 2026 budget has already cost over 700 bn tenge of import VAT, and lower output about 200 bn tenge of extraction tax; the high oil price, on the other hand, brings extra revenue.
Why it matters. The exchange rate moves exporters' tenge revenue, the cost of imported equipment and budget income at once. For oil companies a strong tenge means fewer tenge for every dollar sold.
National Bank rate.
Kapital.kz, 19 SeptemberExport revenue in tenge falls, but imported equipment and services get cheaper.
For a dollar-based investor tenge assets are worth more, but exporters' tenge margins shrink.
Importing equipment and materials costs less in tenge.
Gas
Gas purchases from Russia to nearly triple in 2026, to 11 bcm
At the TNF-2026 forum in Tyumen, Kazakhstan and Gazprom signed an addendum to their gas supply contract. According to the vice minister of energy, purchases will rise from 4 bcm in 2025 to 11 bcm in 2026, with about 9 bcm under discussion for 2027. The increase was put down to technical problems at a large Kazakh field.
Why it matters. The domestic gas balance depends on a few large fields: a problem at one of them has to be covered by imports.
Imports cover this year's gas shortfall and lower the risk of supply interruptions for consumers.
A sign of gas production problems this year; the deal itself is about supply, not assets.
No direct effect on orders for Kazakh service companies.
Companies
Samruk-Kazyna received $1.9 bn from joint ventures, $1.6 bn of it from TCO and CPC
In the first seven months of 2026 the fund received $1.9 bn from its joint-venture stakes, $1.6 bn of it from Tengizchevroil and the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. TCO paid about 519 bn tenge (~$1.1 bn) for the first half and another $442 m in July. KazMunayGas owns 20% of TCO.
Why it matters. Tengiz remains the state fund's main source of cash even in a year when total output is below last year's.
- TCO and CPC — 1.6
- Other joint ventures — 0.3
Confirms steady cash flow from the country's largest project.
$1.6 bn in seven months is strong cash generation by the Tengiz and CPC assets despite lower national output.
Shows the project is financially healthy but does not in itself mean new orders.
Energy ministry: developing Kazakh oilfield services is a priority
On 18 September the 4th PetroMaintenance 2026 forum on the maintenance of oil and gas facilities opened in Atyrau. The vice minister of energy said that in-country value and support for Kazakh service companies are a key priority of the ministry, including localised engineering and offtake contracts. KazMunayGas, QazaqGaz, NCOC, TCO and KPO took part, with B2B meetings with local service companies.
Why it matters. A signal for service companies: the large operators are open to talks, and in-country value requirements stay in the ministry's focus.
For operators, a known course: procurement with in-country value in mind.
No new binding requirements were announced — the existing policy direction was confirmed.
Kazakh service and engineering companies are the direct audience: offtake contracts and localisation.
Transport and exports
Kenkiyak–Atyrau pipeline moved 10% more oil in eight months
According to KazTransOil, 4.302 Mt of oil moved through the Kenkiyak–Atyrau trunk pipeline in January–August — 394 kt (10%) more than a year earlier. The domestic market took 3.618 Mt (+8%) and exports 685 kt (+24%).
Why it matters. The pipeline carries oil from the Aktobe fields west to the Atyrau refinery and export routes; higher throughput supports domestic refinery runs.
2025 is 4.302 Mt minus the 394 kt increase.
Inbusiness.kz, 15 SeptemberMore feedstock on a domestic route helps plan refinery runs independently of export constraints.
A small data point with limited effect on the results of large producers.
Steady pipeline use keeps up demand for its maintenance.
Refining
Refineries switch to inter-seasonal diesel
The Atyrau and Shymkent refineries are switching to inter-seasonal diesel in September, and the Pavlodar plant from 1 October to fuel with a cold filter plugging point of −15…−17 °C. Additives improve the cold properties; production volumes are not being cut.
Why it matters. The planned seasonal change of grades lowers the risk of diesel problems as it gets colder.
A routine seasonal step with no effect on volumes.
No effect on refinery runs or margins.
Distributors can plan winter diesel logistics ahead; demand for cold-flow additives grows.
World
The US Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since 2023, to 3.75–4.00%
The US Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage point to a range of 3.75–4.00%. Fed officials noted that inflation had picked up beyond energy alone.
Why it matters. Higher US rates usually strengthen the dollar and make money dearer for emerging markets — affecting the cost of financing oil and gas projects and the tenge rate.
Worth reviewing the terms of dollar loans and leases.
Dearer capital means a higher discount rate for projects and a higher cost of debt.
No direct effect on orders; dollar working-capital finance gets dearer.
What's next
- The Ministry of Energy announced an electronic auction of 56 hydrocarbon areas: according to Kazinform, applications close on 18 November and the auction is on 25 December. How the auction works and what follows — field development stages.Kazinform
- September payment deadline: corporate income tax advances, withheld taxes, social payments, land use and emission charges. More in subsoil users' taxes.Kursiv Media
- KIOGE 2026 — the 30th Kazakhstan International Oil and Gas Exhibition and Conference, Almaty, Atakent, 30 September – 2 October.KIOGE
- The next meeting of the OPEC+ countries, Kazakhstan included, on November output levels. On 6 September the group kept October output at September's level.OPEC
cash flow
The money a project brings in over a period: revenue minus operating costs, taxes and investment. TCO's dividends are the part of its cash flow paid to shareholders, while the oil price, the exchange rate and output from the budget forecasts are the main inputs for calculating it in the economic model.
To the glossaryThe digest reviews the week's reports; the facts and figures belong to the sources cited. It is not investment or legal advice.